The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday, Nov. 25, edition that the worst of the inflation surge has not passed us by.
The Globe's guest columnist John Rapley writes that last month's Bank of Canada meeting policy makers expressed concern about the impact of Canada's housing crisis on inflation. While the big increases in mortgage rates should have knocked prices down by now, the BOC said that "the ongoing structural shortage of housing supply in the economy was sustaining elevated house prices." Owing to this, even though a majority of governors voted to hold rates constant, some favoured a further hike.
Because until Canada brings real estate prices down further, not only will the housing crisis endure, but the economy will probably continue to struggle with a stagflation problem, with prices rising in a weak economy.
The BOC is not the only central bank warning it is too early to declare victory in the war on inflation. U.S. Federal Reserve governors have been making similar noises, while earlier last week, amid rallying bond markets, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that it was "far too early to be thinking about rate cuts."
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