The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that the Bank of Canada had a "dovish" tone last week and it appears Governor Stephen Poloz
would be happy with a softer loonie.
The Globe's David Rosenberg writes that the bank trimmed its growth
forecast for 2016 to 1.1 per cent
from 1.3 per cent and to 2 per
cent from 2.2 per cent for 2017,
due to slower "near-term housing resale activity
and a lower trajectory for
exports." There is lots of talk about
exports and when a central banker
discusses "competitiveness challenges,"
that is code for "currency
depreciation required."
The bank's new growth projection
implies the economy
will return to full capacity
in "mid-2018."
The loonie is "undervalued" by about 10 per cent,
but it will have to become even
cheaper to spark the upturn in
industrial activity that will be
needed to offset the looming
drag in the residential real
estate.
While currency depreciation
is no antidote for the
myriad of Canada's competitive
hurdles, it will still give the positive
jolt to exporters that we
desperately need to maintain
even the lacklustre growth we
have on our hands, as the
hot housing market most assuredly
cools off in the months
ahead.
© 2024 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.