The Financial Post reports in its Tuesday, Feb. 10, edition that the Canadian economy could fall into recession if it loses preferential trade access to the U.S. under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, but this is not the Bank of Canada's base-case scenario, said Governor Tiff Macklem. The Post's Jordan Gowling writes that Mr. Macklem said that while a recession is possible, the bank's main forecast is that Canada will maintain its exemptions, but U.S. tariffs will remain. The bank projects growth of 1.1 per cent in 2026 and 1.5 per cent in 2027. He said, "We also assume that the uncertainty that businesses are currently facing, given the erratic, unpredictable nature of U.S. trade policy gradually dissipates." The BOC returned to a baseline forecast in October, but had previously run through scenarios in which a universal tariff is applied to Canadian goods. The Canadian economy has shown resilience amid trade uncertainty with the U.S., primarily because most exports to the U.S. are exempt from tariffs under CUSMA. Mr. Macklem said: "In some of the speeches I gave, we had scenarios, for example, with a universal tariff of 10 per cent on all Canadian goods. In those scenarios, we forecast a recession."