The Financial Post reports in its Thursday, Dec. 11, edition that Oxford Economics senior economist Michael Davenport said in a note, "Stronger-than-expected third quarter gross domestic product and recent labour market data likely solidified the Bank of Canada's decision to stand pat after back-to-back 25-basis-point rate cuts."
The Post's Gigi Suhanic writes that third quarter economic growth was 2.6 per cent annualized, trouncing estimates of 0.5 per cent, though the strong showing was more attributed to a drop in imports rather than economic vibrancy.
The Bank of Canada is looking at an economic balancing act in 2026, Mr. Davenport said, and has to weigh the risks of the trade war boosting inflation against inflation falling due to weakening domestic demand.
He said, "Like most aspects of the outlook for 2026, the path ahead for the Bank of Canada will likely hinge on U.S.-Canada trade policy and the upcoming renegotiation of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA)."
For now, Mr. Davenport said he thinks the Bank of Canada will hold rates in 2026, with the next move likely a rate hike to 2.75 per cent, but not until 2027.
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