19:27:09 EDT Mon 20 May 2024
Enter Symbol
or Name
USA
CA



Alamos Gold Inc
Symbol AGI
Shares Issued 396,780,566
Close 2024-01-10 C$ 16.86
Market Cap C$ 6,689,720,343
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Alamos Gold produces 529,300 oz Au in 2023

2024-01-10 17:23 ET - News Release

Mr. John McCluskey reports

ALAMOS GOLD ACHIEVES INCREASED 2023 GUIDANCE WITH RECORD ANNUAL PRODUCTION AND PROVIDES THREE-YEAR PRODUCTION AND OPERATING GUIDANCE

Alamos Gold Inc. has released its fourth quarter and annual 2023 production. The company also provided updated three-year production and operating guidance.

"We finished 2023 with another strong quarter, achieving the top end of our increased annual guidance with record production of 529,300 ounces of gold. This represented a 15% increase from 2022, at lower costs, driving a record financial performance and strong free cash flow, all while continuing to invest in high-return, low-cost growth," said John A. McCluskey, President and Chief Executive Officer.

"We expect this strong performance to continue with growing production and declining costs over the next several years. Mulatos continues to outperform, supporting an increase in our 2024 production guidance. The Phase 3+ Expansion at Island Gold remains on track to deliver further production growth, decreasing costs, and substantial free cash flow growth into 2026 and beyond. We are advancing our other growth initiatives with the development plan for PDA expected to be completed later this quarter, outlining additional production upside as early as 2026, and with Lynn Lake to provide further low-cost production growth as early as 2027. We have also increased our exploration budget to the highest level in our history reflecting the ongoing success and significant upside we see across our asset base," Mr. McCluskey added.

  • Record annual production; met top end of increased production guidance: produced a record 529,300 ounces, achieving the top end of revised guidance which had been increased 5% in October 2023. This included a strong finish to the year from all three operations with fourth quarter production of 129,500 ounces. Full year production increased 15% from 2022 driven by low-cost growth from La Yaqui Grande
  • Costs expected to meet 2023 guidance: total cash costs and all-in sustaining costs ("AISC") for 2023 have not been finalized but are expected to be consistent with full year guidance. As previously guided, AISC are expected to be above full year guidance in the fourth quarter, but in-line with guidance on a full year basis
  • Record financial performance: sold 129,005 ounces of gold in the fourth quarter at an average realized price of $1,973 per ounce for revenues of $255 million. Full year sales totaled 526,257 ounces of gold at an average realized price of $1,944 per ounce for record revenues of $1.0 billion
  • Growing cash position: ended the year with approximately $225 million of cash and cash equivalents, up from $130 million at the end of 2022 reflecting strong free cash flow generation through the year. The Company remains debt-free

  • 2024 production guidance increased; 7% growth expected by 2026: production guidance increased to between 485,000 and 525,000 ounces in 2024, a 3% increase from previous guidance issued in January 2023 driven by increased production from the Mulatos District through residual leaching of the main leach pad. Production is expected to increase 7% by 2026 reflecting low-cost production growth from Island Gold with the completion of the Phase 3+ Expansion
  • PDA to provide additional upside potential in 2026 with further growth potential in 2027 through Lynn Lake: three-year guidance excludes the higher-grade Puerto Del Aire ("PDA") project, which represents potential production upside at Mulatos as early as 2026. This upside is expected to be outlined in a development plan for PDA to be completed in the first quarter of 2024, which will incorporate ongoing exploration success in 2023. Looking beyond 2026, the Lynn Lake project is expected to support further potential growth with first production as early as the second half of 2027
  • Total cash costs and AISC per ounce expected to remain flat in 2024 and decrease 15% and 11%, respectively, by 2026: -Total cash costs of $825 and $875 per ounce in 2024 are expected to be consistent with 2023, and decrease 15% by 2026 to $675 to $775 per ounce: costs are expected to decrease steadily into 2025 and 2026 reflecting the end of higher-cost residual leaching at Mulatos and low-cost production growth from Island Gold -Cost guidance for 2024 has increased from previous guidance primarily reflecting higher than previously guided production from the Mulatos District, the stronger Mexican Peso, as well as ongoing inflation -The additional production from Mulatos is expected to come through residual leaching which carries higher reported costs, though is expected to provide strong free cash flow with the majority of these costs previously incurred. Excluding this impact and the stronger Mexican peso, total cash costs increased approximately 5% relative to previous guidance with the main driver being inflation -AISC expected to be between $1,125 to $1,175 per ounce in 2024, and decrease 11% by 2026 to $975 to $1,075 per ounce: consistent with total cash costs, the end of residual leaching at Mulatos and low-cost production growth from Island Gold is expected to drive a significant decrease in costs into 2025 and 2026
  • Capital spending expected to decrease 46% by 2026 at existing operations: total capital (excluding capitalized exploration) is expected to range between $350 to $390 million in 2024, an increase from 2023 reflecting inflation, as well as higher spending at Island Gold and Lynn Lake. This includes $325 to $365 million of capital at producing mines (excluding PDA and Lynn Lake). Capital spending for producing mines is expected to decrease slightly into 2025, followed by a substantial reduction in 2026 to $175 to $200 million reflecting the completion of the Phase 3+ Expansion. The total capital budget for 2024 includes: -Sustaining capital guidance of $93 to $105 million: down from 2023 and expected to increase slightly in 2025 and 2026 -Growth capital guidance for producing mines of $232 to $260 million: up from 2023 reflecting higher growth capital at Young-Davidson and Island Gold. Growth capital is expected to decrease by nearly 70% in 2026 with the completion of the Phase 3+ Expansion
  • Exploration budget of $62 million: up from expected spending of approximately $50 million in 2023. This represents the largest exploration budget in the history of the Company with expanded budgets across all key assets following up on broad based exploration success in 2023. This success was most notable at Island Gold and the Mulatos District with both assets expected to account for approximately 60% of the total budget in 2024
  • Strong ongoing free cash flow while funding low-cost growth: the Company expects to continue generating strong ongoing free cash flow at current gold prices while funding the Phase 3+ Expansion at Island Gold. Free cash flow generation from existing operations is expected to increase substantially in 2026 following the completion of the Phase 3+ Expansion, reflecting higher production, lower costs, and lower capital spending

(1 ) Guidance statements in this release are forward-looking information. See the Assumptions and Sensitives section of this release along with the cautionary note at the end of this release.

Upcoming 2024 catalysts

PDA development plan: Q1 2024

2023 year-end Mineral Reserve and Resource update: February 2024

Island Gold and Mulatos exploration updates: ongoing

Burnt Timber and Linkwood study (satellite deposits to Lynn Lake): Q4 2024

Gold production in 2024 is expected to range between 485,000 and 525,000 ounces, a 3% increase from the previous three-year guidance provided in January 2023 (based on the mid-point). The increase is driven by higher expected production from the Mulatos District through residual leaching of the Mulatos leach pad, in addition to ongoing production from La Yaqui Grande. Production is expected to be slightly higher during the first half of 2024 with the recovery of ounces through residual leaching at Mulatos expected to decline through the year.

Total cash costs and AISC are expected to be consistent with 2023. Costs are expected to be towards the upper end of guidance to start the year and trend lower through the year reflecting declining rates of production from residual leaching at Mulatos.

AISC guidance has increased 12% relative to previous guidance (based on the mid-point) with the majority related to the increase in production from the Mulatos District through residual leaching, the stronger Mexican peso, as well as inflation, partly offset by lower sustaining capital.

The main driver of the increase in AISC is higher costs at the Mulatos District. La Yaqui Grande is expected to supply approximately 75% of Mulatos District production at a similar low-cost structure as 2023. The remaining production is expected to come from residual leaching of the main Mulatos leach pad which carries higher reported AISC of approximately $1,850 per ounce. The majority of these costs were previously incurred and recorded in inventory. The cash component to recover these ounces in 2024 is expected to be approximately $800 per ounce providing stronger free cash flow than implied by the higher reportable costs.

Additionally, the stronger Mexican Peso of 17:1 (MXN:USD), compared to 20:1 in previous guidance, increased costs by approximately $20 per ounce. The other key component of the increase in costs is inflation of 4% company-wide, with the largest driver being ongoing labour inflation, particularly in Canada.

( 1 ) Refer to the "Non-GAAP Measures and Additional GAAP" disclosure at the end of this press release for a description of these measures.

( 2 ) Total consolidated all-in sustaining costs include corporate and administrative and share based compensation expenses.

Capital spending is expected to increase from 2023 reflecting inflation, higher capital at Island Gold and Lynn Lake, and an increased capitalized exploration budget. The largest driver of the increase in capital at Island Gold is for a planned tailings lift to be completed in 2024, as well as increased underground development costs, reflecting labour and cost inflation. Capital spending on the Lynn Lake project is expected to more than double the amount spent in 2023. Spending at Lynn Lake will be focused on upgrades to site access and infrastructure, including early work on the power line upgrade, in advance of a construction decision anticipated in 2025. Capital spending is expected to be balanced between the first and second half of the year.

Given the strong profitability of the Mulatos operation in 2023, the Company expects to pay significantly higher cash tax payments in Mexico in 2024, which includes the 2023 year-end tax payment due in the first quarter. Combined with an expected decrease in costs through the year, the Company expects stronger free cash flow starting in the second quarter of 2024.

Consistent with previous guidance, gold production is expected to decrease slightly in 2025 reflecting the end of residual leaching at the main Mulatos leach pad, partly offset by further low-cost growth from Island Gold. The completion of the Phase 3+ Expansion at Island Gold is expected to drive production approximately 10% higher into 2026, from 2025.

Production guidance for 2026 excludes any production from the higher-grade PDA project which represents an excellent opportunity for additional production within the Mulatos District. A development plan outlining this upside potential at PDA is expected to be completed during the first quarter of 2024. Looking into 2027 and beyond, the Lynn Lake project represents further growth potential as detailed in the 2023 Feasibility Study which outlined another long-life, low-cost asset in Canada, with attractive economics and significant exploration upside.

Total cash costs and AISC in 2025 are expected to decrease 12% and 4%, respectively, from 2024. This is expected to be driven by low-cost growth from Island Gold, and the end of higher-cost residual leaching at Mulatos. A further increase in low-cost production at Island Gold is expected to drive costs lower into 2026, representing a 15% decrease in total cash costs, and 11% decrease in AISC, relative to 2024.

Capital spending at existing operations (excluding PDA and Lynn Lake) is expected to decrease 4% in 2025, reflecting lower capital at Mulatos and Island Gold. The increase in capital relative to previous guidance is primarily driven by inflation. A more substantial decrease in capital is expected in 2026 with the completion of the Phase 3+ Expansion at Island Gold. Sustaining capital spending at existing operations is expected to increase slightly in 2025 and 2026.

( 1) Production and AISC are based on mid-point of guidance.

( 2) Refer to the "Non-GAAP Measures and Additional GAAP" disclosure at the end of this press release for a description of these measures.

(3 ) Total consolidated all-in sustaining costs include corporate and administrative and share based compensation expenses.

2024 Capital Budget for Lynn Lake

Capital spending on the Lynn Lake project, excluding exploration, is expected to total $25 million. This is up from 2023 reflecting planned upgrades to the site access and infrastructure. With approval of the Environmental Impact Statement and Provincial licenses received in March 2023, and the positive Feasibility Study completed in August 2023, the focus in 2024 will be on further de-risking and advancing the project ahead of an anticipated construction decision in 2025. This includes finishing detailed engineering, which is 75% complete, upgrading road access, and early work on the power line upgrade.

The majority of the $25 million capital budget in 2024 is spending included as initial capital in the 2023 Feasibility Study. Additionally, $9 million has been budgeted for exploration at Lynn Lake for a total capital budget of $34 million.

2024 Exploration Budget

The global exploration budget for 2024 is $62 million, a 24% increase from expected spending of $50 million in 2023. The increase reflects expanded budgets across all key assets following up on broad based exploration success in 2023. Island Gold and the Mulatos District account for approximately 60% of the total budget with $19 million planned for each asset. This is followed by $12 million at Young-Davidson, $9 million at Lynn Lake and $2 million at Golden Arrow. Approximately $41 million, or 66% of the 2024 budget will be capitalized.

The 2024 to 2026 production forecast, operating cost and capital estimates are based on a gold price assumption of $1,800 per ounce, a USD/CAD foreign exchange rate of $0.75:1 and MXN/USD foreign exchange rate of 17.0:1. Cost assumptions for 2025 and 2026 are based on 2024 input costs and have not been increased to reflect potential inflation in those years. These estimates may be updated in the future to reflect inflation beyond what is currently forecast for 2024.

Amortization expense in 2024 is expected to total approximately $375 per ounce, consistent with 2023 amortization. General and administrative expenses in 2024 are expected to total $28 million (excluding stock-based compensation), consistent with 2023 spending.

Current foreign exchange and gold hedging commitments

The Company has entered into the following foreign exchange and short-term hedging arrangements to date:

Canadian dollar: approximately 55% of Canadian dollar-denominated operating and capital costs for 2024 have been hedged, ensuring a maximum USD/CAD foreign exchange rate of $0.75:1 and allowing the Company to participate in weakness in the USD/CAD down to an average rate of $0.70:1 (if the USD/CAD rate weakens beyond $0.70:1, the average rate increases to $0.72:1).

Mexican peso: approximately 17% of Mexican peso-denominated operating and capital costs in 2024 have been hedged, ensuring a minimum MXN/USD foreign exchange rate of 18.0:1 and allowing the Company to participate in weakness in the MXN/USD up to an average rate of 19.8:1.

Gold collar contracts: The Company also periodically enters into short term gold hedging arrangements. Currently, the Company has hedged 69,750 ounces in 2024, ensuring an average minimum gold price of $1,926 per ounce and participation up to an average gold price of $2,356 per ounce. This represents approximately 14% of 2024 production (based on mid-point of guidance).

Qualified Persons

Chris Bostwick, Alamos' Senior Vice President, Technical Services, who is a qualified person within the meaning of National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects, has reviewed and approved the scientific and technical information contained in this press release.

About Alamos

Alamos is a Canadian-based intermediate gold producer with diversified production from three operating mines in North America. This includes the Young-Davidson and Island Gold mines in northern Ontario, Canada and the Mulatos mine in Sonora State, Mexico. Additionally, the Company has a strong portfolio of growth projects, including the Phase 3+ Expansion at Island Gold, and the Lynn Lake project in Manitoba, Canada. Alamos employs more than 1,900 people and is committed to the highest standards of sustainable development. The Company's shares are traded on the TSX and NYSE under the symbol "AGI".

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