The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that nobody really knows what is driving the gold frenzy. The Globe's Ian McGugan writes that it is distinctly odd, as Morgan Stanley noted last week, to see U.S. stocks roar upward at the same time as gold is also ripping higher. The two trends represent diametrically opposed outlooks. The bull market on Wall Street suggests widespread euphoria about what lies ahead. The bull market in gold suggests a desperate search for safety. Make of this what you will. "The latest rise in gold prices seems to have also come out of nowhere and no one really has any idea what's going on," Brookings Institution economist Robin Brooks wrote last week in what may be the most honest assessment of the current situation. Mr. McGugan says it is not generally a good idea to invest in an asset that is rising for reasons you do not understand. He says he can understand the desire to ride the gold bandwagon. Just be aware that the perception of safety in gold is largely an illusion. Someone who bought bullion at its 1980 peak would have had to wait 25 years to get back to even. Someone who bought gold at its 2011 peak would have had to wait nine years to be back to where they started.
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