The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday, Sept. 4, edition that interest
rates are expected to stay
low for longer as the Bank of Canada (BOC)
tries to lift the economy out of a
mild recession. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that Canada's economic slowdown has
prompted two 25-basis-point
BOC rate cuts this year.
Although analysts see a sizable
40-per-cent possibility the BOC will cut again at some point
despite rates sitting at only 0.5 per
cent, they peg the chance of a
hike at 55 per cent, though it
will not come for 1-1/2 years.
While the median forecast from
a Reuters poll of 40 economists suggests no
change in rates on Sept. 9, forecasters
pegged the probability of
another 25-basis-point cut at 25 per cent, particularly after the
bank's first rate cut this year in
January was unexpected.
Markets are also pricing in a
small risk of more easing next
week.
TD Securities analyst David Tulk says: "The Bank of Canada will be
comfortable remaining on the
sidelines. ... There is still a risk
they might cut given that the outlook
has weakened. But they
don't have the same urgency to
respond to a weaker-than-expected
performance in the economy
like they did back in July."
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