The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday, May 23, edition that last week DBRS downgraded
its trend rating on credit
issues for Canada's Big Six banks
to "negative" from "stable." The Globe's Scott Barlow writes that DBRS said the "anticipated changes in
Canadian legislation and regulation
mean that the potential for
timely systemic support for these
systemically important institutions
is declining." Scotia Capital
Research doubts the market will react in a significant way to the news.
But Canadian investors are not
used to seeing the word "negative"
associated with domestic
bank stocks. The downgrade
serves as a reminder that the
business environment for the
banks is deteriorating. Consumers
are at least close to "tapped
out" on credit, the interest rate
environment makes profit on
basic lending scarce and the
growth of wealth management
and institutional trading operations
makes earnings more sensitive
to market performance than
ever before.
Since December, 2013, a sharply flattening yield curve
suggests bank stocks will
perform poorly in the coming
months.
The yield curve can help assess
the future for Canadian investors, says Mr. Barlow.
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