Mr. David Hodge reports
COMMERCE RESOURCES CORP. REPORTS ROBUST ECONOMICS FROM PRELIMINARY
ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT FOR THE ASHRAM RARE EARTH ELEMENT DEPOSIT, NORTHERN,
QUEBEC
Commerce Resources Corp. has released the results of a positive National Instrument 43-101-compliant preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for the Ashram rare earth element (REE)
deposit at the Eldor property in Quebec. The PEA, prepared by independent consultants SGS
Canada Inc. -- Geostat of Montreal (Blainville), indicates that the deposit can be
developed economically as an open-pit mine, and recommends future work applicable to the prefeasibility and feasibility phases of economic evaluation. The Eldor property is located within
the Labrador Trough, northeastern Quebec, approximately 130 kilometres south of the
community of Kuujjuaq.
Highlights:
- Study results show a strongly positive cash flow from a 4,000-tonne-per-day open-pit
operation at Ashram with a 25-year mine life, a pretax and prefinance net present
value (NPV) at a 10-per-cent discount rate of $2.32-billion, a pretax/prefinance internal rate
of return (IRR) of 44 per cent, and a pretax/prefinance payback period of 2.25 years.
- SGS's economic evaluation was based on the March 6, 2012, resource estimate which
used a base-case geologic cut-off grade of 1.25 per cent TREO (total rare earth oxide), and provided 29.3 million tonnes
(Mt) of measured and indicated resource, as well as 219.8 Mt of inferred resource
averaging 1.88 per cent TREO.
-
The rare earth elements at Ashram occur in simple and well-understood mineralogy,
being primarily in the mineral monazite, and to a lesser extent in bastnesite and
xenotime. These minerals dominate the currently known commercial extraction processes
for rare earths.
"The PEA displays robust economics for the Ashram deposit, and recommends next steps for
the economic evaluation of this very large and highly strategic resource. The high NPV derives
partly from the value of the Ashram material in that it is enriched with all five of the critical
REEs namely neodymium, europium, dysprosium, terbium and yttrium," states David Hodge,
president and chief executive officer of Commerce Resources. "Management believes that significant
benefits will be further realized during the next phase of metallurgy based on the testwork
completed to date, given the deposit's simple mineralogy and history of successful commercial
processing of Ashram's three host minerals. We look forward to initiating the prefeasibility
study to demonstrate this."
Key findings of the PEA
- Four-thousand-tonne-per-day, open-pit operation with 0.19-to-1 (waste-to-ore) strip ratio over 25-year mine life;
- Pretax NPV of $2.32-billion at a 10-per-cent discount rate;
- Pretax IRR of 44 per cent and pretax payback period of 2.25 years;
- Estimated capital cost of $763-million (including 25-per-cent contingency);
- Estimated operating cost of $95.20 per tonne treated, or approximately $7.91 per kilogram of rare earth
oxide produced;
- Greater than 175 years worth of minable mineralized material (open pit plus underground)
using a cut-off grade (CoG) of 1.25 per cent TREO;
- Annual production averaging approximately 16,850 tonnes of rare earth oxide over life of mine, including
2,870 tonnes Nd oxide, 96 tonnes Eu oxide, 26 tonnes Tb oxide, 106 tonnes Dy oxide and
440 tonnes Y oxide;
- Rare earth element host mineralogy (monazite, bastnesite and xenotime) comprises phases
amenable to recovery with processing using conventional and proven techniques.
Basis for the study: the base-case scenario
The base-case scenario used for the PEA outlines a 4,000-tonne-per-day (t/d) open-pit mining
operation (350 days per year). The mineralized material will be upgraded on site to a minimum
10-per-cent TREO mineral concentrate, using conventional flotation techniques,
resulting in a mass reduction of 87.3 per cent. The material will be subjected to sulphuric acid cracking
on site to produce a mixed rare earth carbonate (REC) product. Recoveries at the mineral
concentrate and acid cracking stages are anticipated to be at least 70 per cent and 95 per cent, respectively, for
a final overall recovery of 66.5 per cent. Using an in-pit average head grade of 1.81 per cent TREO, a total of
approximately 16,850 tonnes of a rare earth oxide are anticipated to be produced annually
over a 25-year mine life.
The mixed REC product will be trucked north 185 kilometres, on an all-weather road that Commerce
will construct, to a storage and docking facility at Mackay's Island, north of Kuujjuaq, at Ungava
Bay. The product will be stored and shipped during the three or four months of the year that shipping
lanes are operational.
Mineral resource estimate and geological setting
The PEA uses the updated mineral resource estimate for the Ashram deposit (SGS Geostat,
2012), released March 6, 2012, which is an approximate 100-per-cent increase in tonnage over the
company's initial inferred mineral resource estimate. This resource includes all drilling
completed at the Ashram deposit to date (15,691.74 metres in 45 holes).
The Ashram deposit hosts a well-balanced rare earth distribution throughout in addition to
significant enrichment over all five of the rare earths considered to be critical (Nd, Eu, Tb, Dy
and Y). Within the overall resource, there exists a zone of more intense middle and heavy rare
earth oxide (MHREO) enrichment, termed the MHREO zone. This type of MHREO
enrichment is unique to Ashram, and extends from surface with significant tonnage and grade
(6.55 Mt at 1.63 per cent TREO, measured and indicated, and 2.79 Mt at 1.57 per cent TREO, inferred).
Over all, the Ashram deposit has a pervasive enrichment in the MHREOs, with the MHREO
zone itself an area of more intense enrichment occurring directly at surface that extends to
depths in excess of 175 metres.
The rare-earth-mineralized footprint at Ashram extends approximately 700 m along strike, over
500 m across and to depths exceeding 600 m. Mineralization remains open to the north, south and
at depth, and is not fully constrained to the west and east.
Mine design and operations
The mining scenario will be a 4,000-tonne-per-day open-pit operation supporting an initial mine life of 25
years. At the current CoG of 1.25 per cent TREO, the deposit contains enough material to support a
mining operation of more than 175 years (open pit plus underground). If the calculated economic
CoG of 0.51 per cent TREO is used, the mining operations could be sustained for 300 years (open pit plus
underground) with potential for significant expansion as the deposit remains open.
The mine site infrastructure will consist of a camp, airport, power plant, fuel and acid farms,
emulsion plant, and processing/tailings facilities for the production of a mixed REC product.
The initial open pit will lie almost entirely within minable mineralized material, centred on the
MHREO zone, and will consist of three push-back phases. Conventional mining equipment will
be used, such as trucks, loaders and hydraulic shovels on five-metre benches. The in-pit material
consists of 35 Mt of mineralized material at a head grade of 1.81 per cent TREO with only 6.7 Mt of
waste material. Minimal overburden is present over the deposit resulting in a near-negligible
strip ratio of 0.19 to 1 (waste to ore) with the grade of mineralized material increasing over time.
Waste rock and overburden will be used as construction material during year zero, including
material used to dike off the northern portion of Centre Pond where the open-pit site currently
lies under approximately 0.5 to three m of water.
Mining will occur for 350 days of the year resulting in 1.4 million tonnes per year of
mineralized material mined. An average of approximately 16,850 tonnes of REO, in a REC
product, will be produced annually over the initial 25-year mine life. The pit will reach approximately 175-metre
depth allowing for open-pit operations to be sustained many years past the initial 25-year mine
life plan. The production schedule proposed by SGS is presented in an attached table.
PRODUCTION OF INDIVIDUAL REO
Year zero to five six to 10 11 to 15 16 to 20 21 to 25 Total
Mill input tonnes 7,000,000 7,000,000 7,000,000 7,000,000 7,000,000 35,000,000
Grade input % TREO 1.72 1.73 1.77 1.86 1.94 1.81
La oxide tonnes 19,200 19,700 20,300 21,400 23,000 103,600
Ce oxide tonnes 36,400 36,800 37,700 39,500 42,530 192,930
Pr oxide tonnes 3,900 3,900 4,000 4,200 4,500 20,500
Nd oxide tonnes 13,900 13,800 14,000 14,500 15,600 71,800
Sm oxide tonnes 1,900 1,900 1,900 2,000 2,180 9,880
Eu oxide tonnes 470 460 460 480 520 2,390
Gd oxide tonnes 1,200 1,100 1,100 1,200 1,300 5,900
Tb oxide tonnes 130 120 120 130 140 640
Dy oxide tonnes 530 500 500 540 590 2,660
Y oxide tonnes 2,200 2,100 2,100 2,200 2,400 11,000
Total tonnes 79,830 80,380 82,180 86,150 92,760 421,300
All tonnages are rounded.
Metallurgy and processing
Metallurgical testwork on a representative sample of the Ashram deposit is in progress at Hazen
Research Inc. in Colorado. After initial experimentation with several separation
techniques, flotation was identified as the most promising and has thus been the chief upgrading
process utilized so far. To date, testwork has focused on initial grinding and determination of the
best rare earth collectors and carbonate depressants.
Flotation results to date show significant upgrading to a rare earth mineral concentrate.
Presently, the best results obtained in the laboratory are a mineral concentrate grade of
approximately 10.37 per cent TREO at 73.4-per-cent recovery and another of 11.18 per cent TREO at a 68.5-per-cent
recovery using conventional flotation techniques with no attempt at optimization. This
represents a TREO upgrading of nearly six times the original grade at favourable recoveries with
a corresponding 85-per-cent to 90-per-cent reduction from the original feed weight. In addition, it has been
demonstrated that all three rare-earth-bearing minerals (monazite, bastnesite and xenotime)
liberate together and share conventional processing techniques.
The PEA base case considers physical upgrading at the mine site by way of conventional
grinding and flotation techniques to produce a 10-per-cent TREO mineral concentrate at 70-per-cent recovery
(12.7 per cent of the original feed weight).
The process plant, as envisaged, will produce a rare earth mineral concentrate by conventional
froth flotation. It will incorporate the following sections: run-of-mine material storage, a one-stage crushing plant, crushed material storage, SAG milling with screen classification followed
by a single-stage ball milling with cyclone classification, flotation of the rare earth minerals,
concentrate thickening and filtering, tailings handling, and water and reagents distribution.
According to Roland Schmidt, director of Hazen's mineralogy laboratories, who is
directing the Ashram testwork:
"There is no technical obstacle that would prevent [the project] from reaching the current target
of 20-per-cent TREO [concentrate] at a recovery of 60 to 70 per cent. It is expected that an improvement of
this magnitude should be possible in view of the relatively simple, albeit fine-grained,
mineralization and also because the flotation chemistry for separation of the types of minerals
present from a carbonate matrix is an established and commercially proven technology."
Cracking of the mineral concentrate will be completed at the mine site using standard techniques
common to the rare earth minerals monazite, bastnesite and xenotime. Acid cracking with
concentrated sulphuric acid will remove the impurities (such as calcium, fluorine, phosphorus, thorium and iron) and precipitate the
rare earth elements as carbonates which will be sold to market. The process and economics for
producing a mixed REO end product, as a potential alternative to an REC product, will be
evaluated in a prefeasibility study.
Economic analysis
Capital expenditures (capex)
The total required capital investment for the Ashram deposit is estimated at $763-million and includes a contingency of 25 per cent. The costs are broken down in an attached table.
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE BREAKDOWN
Item Cost (millions) % of total
Port facility upgrades (Mackay's Island) $42 5.5%
Road (Kuujjuaq to mine site) $204 26.7%
Infrastructure (mine site) $287 37.7%
Equipment $21 2.8%
EPCM/administration (10 per cent) $56 7.3%
Contingency (25 per cent) $153 20.0%
Total $763 100%
The largest expense of the project is the construction of an approximately 185-kilometre all-weather road from the
mine site to the shipping facilities at Mackay's Island, north of Kuujjuaq. The PEA includes
100 per cent of the cost for the construction and maintenance of the road. However, the government of
Quebec has recently announced its ambitious infrastructure and sustainable development plan for
the north called Plan Nord. Part of this plan is to complete a land link (road or rail) and hydroelectric power line connecting Kuujjuaq to the south via the Labrador Trough. The route, as
currently proposed, would run within 35 km of the Ashram deposit. The government of Quebec
has stressed the flexible and dynamic nature of Plan Nord, and the need for industry involvement
to help finance and develop its final route. As such, Commerce intends to work with the
government to integrate its planned shipping and transport route with the government's
infrastructure plan. These efforts may help offset construction and associated maintenance costs.
Operating expenditures (opex)
The total estimated operating expenditures for the Ashram deposit are $95.20 per tonne treated or
$7.91 per kg REO produced. Operating expenditures are relatively low due to the negligible
overburden, open-pit mining method and simple mineralogy that is amenable to
conventional processing techniques. The costs are broken down in an attached table.
OPERATING EXPENDITURE BREAKDOWN
Cost type $/tonne treated $/kg REO Total cost
Mining (open pit) $6.23 $0.52 $217,900,000
General and administrative 47.70 3.96 1,669,500,000
Processing
Flotation 23.87 3.43 1,444,450,000
Acid cracking 17.40 3.43 1,444,450,000
Total 95.20 7.91 3,331,850,000
Mining includes drilling, blasting, mucking, hauling and auxiliary.
G&A includes staff salaries, flights, camp costs, power, acid/mineralized
material transportation and storage.
Processing includes consumables, spare parts, salaries and power.
Much of the G&A costs are due to transportation of acid and other consumables. Trade-off
studies will be completed to evaluate the economic savings of building some of these facilities
further south; however, this was outside the scope of the PEA.
Price deck and market analysis
The selected oxide values used to estimate the economic potential of the Ashram project are a
combination of multiple analysts' consensus forecasts at year 2017 as compiled by Deloitte.
Many recent analyst and market reports were consulted, including Roskill Information Services,
CIBC, the MetalPages website, IMCOA, Mackie Research Capital Corp., Dundee Securities
Corp. and Cormark Securities Inc., in addition to reviewing the values used in recent
PEA/PFS studies of company peers.
The scenario used in the PEA evaluates sale of a pure mixed REC product rather than individual
separated oxides. As such, a discount of 25 per cent was applied to the price deck as Commerce would
not be able to fully profit from individual oxide prices. This discount was calculated based on
the evaluation of separation facility costs for similar projects in addition to an added
contingency. The REO price deck used in the PEA, along with the 25-per-cent discounted prices, is
presented in an attached table.
RARE EARTH OXIDE PRICE DECK FOR PEA
Oxide Original Discounted*
$/kg $/kg
Lanthanum $15.00 $11.25
Cerium 10.00 7.50
Praseodymium 76.00 57.00
Neodymium 77.00 57.75
Samarium 12.00 9.00
Europium 905.00 678.75
Gadolinium 45.00 33.75
Terbium 980.00 735.00
Dysprosium 800.00 600.00
Yttrium 28.00 21.00
Ashram basket price**
(overall resource) 35.03 26.27
Ashram basket price
(in-pit resource) 38.43 28.82
* Discount of 25 per cent applied to each
individual oxide
** Resource effective March 6, 2012
It should be noted that much uncertainty remains with respect to future rare earth pricing, and
forecasting more than five years ahead must be done with caution. Supply forecasts range
considerably providing for the dramatic differences in industry price decks seen over the last 12
months. With the real possibility that China will continue to reduce exports and restrict
production from its rare earth producers as it strives to consolidate the industry, new
production coming on stream will not automatically result in softer prices for the rare earth
sector. The economics of the PEA shows that the Ashram deposit can absorb a significant
decline in the values used in the price deck herein and still remain profitable.
Discounted cash flow analysis
The Ashram consolidated cash flow model is presented in an attached table. The project hosts a pretax
NPV of $2,318-million and a pretax IRR of 44 per cent
with a payback of 2.25 years at a discount rate of 10 per cent.
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW FOR BASE-CASE SCENARIO
Item Value
Pretax and prefinance NPV $2,318,000,000
Pretax and prefinance IRR 44 per cent
Pretax and prefinance payback period* 2.25 years
Discount rate 10 per cent
* from start of production
* exchange rate of 1 to 1 (Canadian to U.S. dollar)
Total operating costs of the project are estimated to be $3,331.85-million while total revenues are
estimated to be $12,059,196,450 for a pretax benefit of $8,727,346,450. No consideration is
given for a potential fluorite or phosphate byproduct during the PEA.
Sensitivity analysis
A sensitivity analysis was performed on the base-case scenario using major variables that have
the greatest impact on the overall economics of the project: oxide value discount, basket price
(or overall recovery revenues), capital expenditures and operating expenditures. The analysis indicates that the economics of the project are most influenced by oxide
pricing and overall processing recovery which is commonly the case for such projects. The
results are presented in an attached table.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT 10-PER-CENT DISCOUNT RATE
Oxide value discount
Variation Discount NPV (millions) IRR
-30% 18% $2,719 50%
-20% 20% 2,604 48%
-10% 23% 2,432 46%
0 25% 2,318 44%
+10% 28% 2,145 42%
+20% 30% 2,031 40%
+30% 33% 1,859 37%
Basket price
Variation* Basket price NPV (millions) IRR
-30% $ 24,52 $1,028 25%
-20% $ 28,02 1,458 32%
-10% $ 31,53 1,888 38%
0 $ 35,03 2,318 44%
+10% $ 38,53 2,747 50%
+20% $ 42,04 3,177 56%
+30% $ 45,54 3,607 63%
Opex
Variation Opex NPV (millions) IRR
-30% $ 2,332.40 $2,683 49%
-20% $ 2,665.60 2,561 48%
-10% $ 2,998.80 2,439 46%
0 $ 3,332.00 2,318 44%
+10% $ 3,665.20 2,196 42%
+20% $ 3,998.40 2,074 40%
+30% $ 4,331.60 1,953 39%
Capex
Variation Capex NPV (millions) IRR
-30% $ 534.10 $2,546 63%
-20% $ 610.40 2,470 55%
-10% $ 686.70 2,394 49%
0 $ 763.00 2,318 44%
+10% $ 839.30 2,241 40%
+20% $ 915.60 2,165 37%
+30% $ 991.90 2,089 34%
Recovery
Variation Recovery NPV (millions) IRR
-30% 47% $1,029 25%
-20% 53% 1,458 32%
-10% 60% 1,888 38%
0 67% 2,318 44%
+10% 73% 2,747 50%
+20% 80% 3,177 56%
+30% 86% 3,607 63%
* While oxide value discount remains at 25 per cent
Opportunities for improvement
Opportunities for improved economics have been identified in multiple areas. These include:
- Additional upgrading of the mineral concentrate, where no technical obstacle has been
observed, and further optimization once the proper collectors and depressants have been
identified;
- Improved recoveries based on favourable results and trends thus far;
- Additional cracking information to evaluate the exact amount of acid required
(anticipated to be less than the one-tonne-acid-per-one-tonne concentrate used in PEA);
- Economic trade-off studies for concentrate cracking in Southern Quebec (such as near
Montreal);
- Economic trade-off study for concentrate cracking to produce a mixed REO instead of an
REC;
-
Potential partnering with the Quebec government on the advancing infrastructure of Plan
Nord;
- Potential of higher-grade mineralized material at surface directly north of the current pit
location that may be included in the pit during a PFS;
- Potential for acid-grade fluorspar and phosphate byproducts.
NI 43-101 disclosure
The following qualified persons, as defined by National Instrument 43-101, for the report are
SGS Geostat employees, based out of Montreal (Blainville): Gaston Gagnon, Ing, principal mining
engineer, and Gilbert Rousseau, Ing, principal metallurgical engineer. All of the qualified
persons have read and approved the contents of this news release.
Jody Dahrouge, BSc, PGeol, Commerce Resources, a qualified person, reviewed
and approved the disclosure of the technical information in this news release with respect to the
exploration.
A technical report on the Eldor project preliminary economic assessment will be completed
within 45 days and will be filed on SEDAR and the company's website.
We seek Safe Harbor.
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