The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, Sept. 7, edition that it is clear the market was surprised by how quickly the Bank of Canada moved to hike rates. The Globe's David Parkinson writes that the rate increase has opened the door for further rate hikes to come.
Yet, other than making the rate increase a few weeks earlier than many had expected, the bank's statement said little to support this hawkish view. Wednesday's rate decision may have come at the strongest moment we are going to see in support of a rate hike. By the time the October announcement rolls around, the economic case for further hikes may already be weakening.
Everyone -- including the BOC -- believes the economy will cool in the second half of the year.
The BOC now has a pressing need to focus the next several weeks on clarifying its message -- starting with a Sept. 18 speech from deputy governor Timothy Lane, followed by a speech by Governor Stephen Poloz the following week. Expect the bank to use those opportunities to remind markets that further rate increases remain dependent on the economic data -- and those data do not come anywhere near suggesting we have a steady diet of rate hikes coming.
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