The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday, July 23, edition that the Bank of Canada is, for now, taking on a neutral stance toward interest rates. The Globe's Kevin Carmichael writes that if the economy gets stronger than currently
expected, the BOC will ready for higher
interest rates. If economic conditions
unexpectedly worsen, the BOC says it is prepared to
cut its benchmark interest rate
from its already low setting
of 1 per cent. Toronto-Dominion Bank economist
Craig Alexander doubts the BOC will surprise
and cut interest rates. Canada's
prospects hinge on exports,
which makes the United States economy's
trajectory the most important
leading indicator of Canadian
growth. The
U.S. economic recovery the BOC is waiting for could come
back faster than it currently
thinks. Federal Reserve Board chairman Janet Yellen last week said
virtually all the first quarter
decline in the U.S. was the result of the unusually
harsh weather, while Mr.
Poloz still was suggesting he
thinks the U.S. recovery has lost a
step.
Mr. Alexander notes the economy
would have to reverse course
quite dramatically to justify a
rate cut.
He wonders whether lower borrowing
costs materially changes anything.
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