The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday edition that the Bank of Canada is likely to maintain steady interest rates while adopting a more hawkish tone due to rising global oil prices. The Globe's Mark Rendell writes that this has led to increased gasoline prices and airfares in Canada, with potential impacts on food and other product prices if the conflict continues.
Central banks often overlook commodity price shocks when setting monetary policy. The BOC is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 2.25 per cent on Wednesday for the third consecutive time.
Economists anticipate that Governor Tiff Macklem will say the BOC is closely monitoring the situation and ready to adjust interest rates if needed. After allowing inflation to rise in 2021 and 2022, central bankers are now more cautious about supply-side shocks becoming entrenched in broader inflation.
Former BOC deputy governor Paul Beaudry says, "They're going to have to sound more hawkish in the sense of saying, 'If we see any of this becoming broad-based and there's a move up in [inflation] expectations, then we might hike.'" The oil price shock does not significantly alter Canada's economic outlook in the near term, says Scotiabank's Olivier Gervais.
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