The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that caution has been a losing strategy for investors over the past six years. The Globe's Tim Shufelt writes that COVID-19, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, tariff wars and now the war in Iran have each posed risks of financial doom. Since the end of 2019, however, the S&P/TSX Composite Index has practically doubled and the Nasdaq 100 Index of American tech stocks has nearly tripled. It seems as if investors have forgotten how to panic. They now anticipate rebounds, preventing sell-offs from taking hold. However, Mr. Shufelt says a stock market that ignores risk is a risk all its own. He says it is unrealistic to believe the Middle East conflict is resolved. Oil prices are unlikely to return to prewar levels, which will push up gasoline prices, inflation and interest rates. Damage to energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf will take years to repair, leading to fertilizer shortages and higher grocery bills that will strain household finances. One observer says we should think of the market as a "conventional wisdom processor" that reflects the shared views of a core of market participants -- a kind of herd mentality -- one can turn on a dime.
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