22:37:25 EST Mon 15 Dec 2025
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Globe's McGugan wonders how long TSX can keep this up

2025-12-15 07:07 ET - In the News

The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that the S&P/TSX Composite Index rocketed to a 31-per-cent total return in 2025. The Globe's Ian McGugan writes that in the United States, the S&P 500 index enjoyed a 12-per-cent return. In Europe, the S&P Europe 350 index rewarded investors with a 28-per-cent gain. Chinese and Japanese stocks, as well as emerging-market equities, spat out returns of 20 per cent or more. Gold soared 60 per cent while silver more than doubled. The question is, or should be, Can the stock market stage an encore in 2026? Perhaps. The average forecast from nine major investment banks is for the benchmark S&P 500 Index of big U.S. companies to score a 10-per-cent gain in 2026. One excellent reason to be at least somewhat wary heading into 2026 is valuation. U.S. stock prices look astonishingly expensive on whichever metric you care to use. Canadian stock prices also seem to be getting pricey. Other time-honoured yardsticks -- price-to-earnings ratios, price-to-book ratios, equity risk premiums -- tell similar tales. It is clear that investors are paying jaw-dropping amounts for stocks. They are doing so despite the uncertainty around artificial intelligence.

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