22:19:06 EDT Thu 16 May 2024
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Globe says TSX warned something has to give in 2024

2024-02-26 07:08 ET - In the News

The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that after warnings of a recession this year, the worry now is how to avoid being swept away by so much good news. The Globe's Ian McGugan writes that jobs have remained plentiful in Canada and the United States, and the runaway inflation of two years ago has defied gloomy forecasts and faded steadily away. Meanwhile, the artificial intelligence boom is powering a market frenzy. Small wonder, then, that people on three continents are snapping up stocks. The S&P 500 Index hit a record high this week, as did the Stoxx Europe 600, and Toronto is not far behind. Even Japan's Nikkei 225, the graveyard of high hopes, has finally managed to surpass its 1989 high. The optimists who are driving today's markets seem to be counting on two incompatible outcomes -- a strong economy and falling interest rates -- to move stocks even higher. It is difficult to see why authorities would rush to cut interest rates if economic growth continues to power ahead and the threat of renewed inflation still lingers. Given the trade-offs involved, investors will probably either face a strong economy with punishingly high interest rates, or a weakening economy with low interest rates.

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