The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday edition that the S&P 500 Index could have a strong year with a gain of just under 15 per cent from current levels by the end of 2024, according to Yardeni Research. Guest columnist Preet Banerjee writes, however, JPMorgan will tell you a drop of almost 11 per cent from here is possible. He wonders: Is there any evidence that these one-year forecasts from the pros have value to investors? Why are they so wildly different? And what are investors supposed to do with this information? According to a FactSet report, for the 20-year period of 2002 to 2021, the average S&P 500 calendar year-end price estimates, based on bottom-up stock forecasts, were off by an annual average of 8.3 percentage points. The poor records of predicting one-year price levels for stock markets are actually a well-known secret in the industry. If you nail a forecast you can attain legendary status, especially for a downside prediction. Michael Burry's call on the housing market leading up to the Great Financial Crisis in 2008 and 2009, featured in the Michael Lewis book and movie The Big Short, still has people reading into any hint of a market call he might make 15 years later.