02:19:56 EDT Fri 17 May 2024
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Globe says predicting TSX's fortunes is for losers

2023-12-18 08:29 ET - In the News

The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that this is the time of year when market prognosticators start crystal-balling on 2024. Guest columnist Tom Bradley writes that the pitch goes something like this, "The market is in an up/down trend and there's lots/little cash around." Or, "Technical indicators are saying stocks have peaked/bottomed." Or the most common answer, "The economy is strong/weak therefore the stock market will be strong/weak." The problem is that nobody knows what the market is going to do in the short to medium term -- nobody, ever, Mr. Bradley says. It is totally unpredictable. Yet, strategies are formulated, investment decisions made, and portfolios traded based on these meaningless views. There is no accountability around market forecasts, and certainly no intellectual honesty. For every prediction that is right, there are 10 that are way off. Investors must accept that stock prices take a completely unpredictable path. Mr. Bradley believes investing is much easier once you realize that nobody knows what is going to happen in the future. Remember the words of John Kenneth Galbraith, "There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know."

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