02:17:51 EDT Fri 17 May 2024
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Globe says TSX rally in December? Consult your cliches

2023-12-04 09:12 ET - In the News

The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that it is time to talk investing cliches, and whether they have a shred of merit. The Globe's John Heinz writes that with December upon us, we are reading about a possible "Santa Claus rally" in the stock market. Some strategies have an air of plausibility, such as "sell in May and go away" and the "presidential election cycle theory." Others, such as the "Super Bowl indicator," are just plain silly. The narrative is then implanted into the collective consciousness with a memorable slogan or catchphrase. The Santa Claus rally story is that stocks tend to do well in December because investors are in a cheerful mood and people have more money to invest, thanks to year-end bonuses. Another contributing factor, presumably, is that by the time December rolls around, investors have finished selling stocks for tax-loss purposes. That is the theory, but there is one glaring problem: December isn't actually a particularly good month for stocks. For the 20 years from 2003 through 2022, December produced an average gain of just 0.68 per cent for the S&P 500. That placed it sixth on the list and well behind the best month, April, which had an average advance of 2.29 per cent.

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