The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that the global energy system has been disrupted, infrastructure damaged and the anticipated supply glut has vanished. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that U.S. companies are likely facing higher oil prices this year, prompting investors to reconsider optimistic 2026 corporate earnings forecasts. Initially, the 2026 oil outlook was bearish, while Wall Street's earnings forecasts were optimistic.
The latter has not changed. As of Friday, full-year 2026 earnings growth estimates were nearly 16 per cent, up from 14 per cent last year and 12 per cent the year before.
However, those optimistic projections rely on an average oil price of around $60 (U.S.) a barrel an expectation that vanished with the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28.
Oil market volatility has been wild. Crude recorded its biggest weekly rise on record last week, and rose further to almost $120 (U.S.) a barrel this week before plunging on hopes for a swift end to the conflict.
While oil will likely drift lower when the war eventually subsides, the damage is done. The finely tuned global energy system has been upended, infrastructure has been hit and the expected supply glut has evaporated.
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