The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that bonds have endured a rough few weeks since the United States and Israel attacked Iran. The Globe's David Berman writes that is giving central bankers plenty to think about as they weigh uneven economic activity and a vulnerable job market against the threat of rising inflation. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada held their respective interest rates unchanged last week, but their assurances did nothing to calm financial markets that are growing wary of another round of inflation. The bond market can sniff trouble. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 4.39 per cent Friday, marking its highest level of the year. Before the war began, the yield was below 4 per cent. The BMO Aggregate Bond Index ETF serves as a useful proxy; it has fallen 2.6 per cent since the war began. Still, in a difficult environment for investors, marked by high stock prices, an energy rally that is growing old and a precious metals market that may be faltering, bonds appear to offer an attractive alternative. Over all, prices are low, yields are relatively high. Today's rising inflation expectations are not helping matters. Nonetheless, the case for bonds is compelling.
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