The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday, April 18, edition that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller worries the Iran war will increase near-term inflation and complicate monetary policy.
A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that Mr. Waller said in a speech at Auburn University that the longer energy prices stay high and the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, the greater the risk of embedded inflation, supply chain issues, and slowing real activity and employment.
If high inflation and weak hiring came to define the economy, "I'll have to balance the risks to the two sides of the Fed's dual mandate to determine the appropriate path of policy, and that may mean maintaining the policy rate at the current target range if the risks to inflation outweigh those to the labour market," Mr. Waller said.
He added that if there was a swift resolution to the conflict, "I see a forecast in which underlying inflation would continue to move toward 2 per cent, leaving me cautious about rate cuts now and more inclined toward cuts to support the labour market later this year when the outlook is more steady"
He said it is getting harder for the Fed to shrug off what would normally be transient shocks to the economy.
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