The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday edition that U.S. defence stocks have declined even as the Iran war drags on, indicating that the typical "buy-on-conflict" trade had largely peaked in the weeks before in anticipation of tougher action by President Donald Trump. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe says the NYSE Arca Defense Index fell nearly 8 per cent in March, compared with the broader S&P 500's 5-per-cent drop. In contrast, it had gained about 12 per cent in February, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. The sluggish performance, strategists said, signalled investors were unwinding positions after a strong run this year and does not reflect fading demand or doubts about longer-term defence spending. David Bianco, Americas chief investment officer at German asset manager DWS, said he began reducing his "overweight" position on defence stocks before the Middle East conflict began. There were signs well before the U.S.-Israeli bombing began in late February that Washington was preparing for a confrontation with Tehran. Similarly, the European defence sector fell 11 per cent in March, marking its biggest monthly loss since the pandemic amid a broad sell-off on worries of a potential energy shock owing to the war.
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