The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday, March 7, edition that the Middle East conflict is raising concerns about its effects on stocks, energy prices, inflation and our future. The Globe's David Berman writes that
Cresset Capital's Mike Silverman analyzed the market response to eight major conflicts over the past 36 years, from the Gulf War in 1990 to last year's U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran. He discovered that the S&P 500 usually dropped by an average of just 0.37 per cent within a week of the conflict's start but rose by 0.5 per cent within a month.
Mr. Silverman says, "Decisions should be grounded in long-term objectives rather than short-term headlines."
To put it another way, just do nothing. RBC's Helima Croft says, "It is our understanding that regional leaders warned Washington about the contagion risks of another confrontation with Iran and indicated that $100+/bbl oil was a clear and present danger." The problem with chasing after these stocks, or gold for that matter, is that there is always the risk of buying too late.
With geopolitical tensions already priced in, you have to wonder if there is any more upside left and what will happen to these bets if the conflict ends quickly.
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