The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, Sept. 3, edition that RBC Dominion Securities analyst James McGarragle is sticking with his "sector perform" ranking and $6 share target for Algoma Steel Group. The Globe's David Leeder writes that analysts on average target the shares at $7.88. Mr. McGarragle says in a note: "We believe a reduction in U.S. tariffs to 25 per cent (from 50 per cent), with an annual four million ton export quota, in line with recent negotiations, would reopen the U.S. market -- a market that has been largely closed to Algoma at current 50-per-cent tariff levels -- which historically comprised 50 to 55 per cent of shipments. Key here is that normalized annual U.S. shipments of 750Knt (roughly in line with historical actuals and achievable under a 4Mt U.S. export quota in our view) would result in meaningful operating leverage at current steel prices, and would also be an important driver of a Canadian domestic supply normalization. ... Increased U.S. exports would drive a Canadian domestic pricing recovery." In a client report released Wednesday analyzing the fallout from a potential trade deal, Mr. McGarragle says he sees "tariff normalization as the primary rerating catalyst for Algoma."
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