The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition Russia's Urakali suggests potash prices will fall to $300 per tonne from the current $400 as it apparently busts up Belarus Potash, its half of the global potash cartel (all figures U.S.). The Globe's David Milstead writes that sent most potash producers' shares down 20 per cent Tuesday. There is a group of potash stocks that could produce strong long-term returns if the current potash sentiment is too pessimistic. These are the potash juniors. IC Potash, Potash Ridge and EPM Mining Ventures all operate in New Mexico and Utah.
Analyst Kiril Mugerman of Industrial Alliance Securities says sulphate of potash (SOP) is the "preferred" potassium fertilizer for high-value crops such as tropical fruits. He says the Urakali news could reduce SOP pricing from $600 a tonne to $500 a tonne, which should still be a "healthy profit margin" if the companies produce at an expected cost per tonne of $150 to $250.
He has "speculative buys" on both IC Potash and EPM Mining Ventures, saying the two "remain strong investment opportunities, as the SOP market dynamics are completely different and not dependent on the global cartel that controls the (dominant) MOP market."
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