The Financial Post reports in its Friday, Jan. 9, edition that Desjardins Capital Markets analyst Keith Howlett says the combination of tax-free capital gains on principal residences and home borrowing rates below 3 per cent make it logical to buy "as much house as possible." The Post's Jonathan Ratner writes in the Trading Desk column that Mr. Howlett, however, cautions that this may have become a broad-based and ingrained consumer habit.
He says, "The risk to consumers is lack of asset diversification and potential overvaluation of housing if everyone is behaving in the same way." If and when housing prices in Canada correct, the risk is that the ensuing negative wealth effect will hurt retail spending.
If housing prices start the process of either a soft or hard landing, Mr. Howlett believes the negative impact would be felt most by Rona ($13.72), Sears Canada ($12.29) and Canadian Tire ($223).
Appliance and furniture retailers such as Leon's Furniture ($18.20) and BMTC Group ($16.30) would also likely take a hit. Mr. Howlett rated Rona and Canadian Tire "buy" in the Post on Dec. 18, 2014. Rona and Canadian Tire were then trading at $13.44 and $230.76.
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