Group likely to lose governance structures in Iraq this year; Mosul
to fall by second half of this year
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LONDON -- (Business Wire)
Territory controlled by the Islamic State shrunk by almost a quarter in
2016, according to new analysis released today by IHS Markit (Nasdaq:
INFO), a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions.
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In 2016, the Islamic State’s caliphate shrunk by 23 percent from 78,000
km2 in early January to 60,400 km2 by the end of
the year-- an area roughly half the size of North Korea. This compares
to a loss of 14 percent in 2015, when the caliphate shrunk from 90,800 km2
to 78,000 km2.
“The Islamic State suffered unprecedented territorial losses in 2016,
including key areas vital for the group’s governance project,” said
Columb Strack, senior analyst and head of the IHS
Conflict Monitor. “This is despite the opportunistic recapture of
Palmyra in December from a Syrian government preoccupied at the time
with Aleppo.”
Loss of territory threatening Islamic State internal cohesion
Internal Islamic State publications and scholarly discourse among
jihadist theorists reveal increasing disagreement within the Islamic
State over its strategy in the face of territorial losses and, more
significantly, its authority on theological grounds.
“The Islamic State is internally divided into two opposing doctrinal
trends: the mainstream view drawn from Turki al-Bin’ali, and the more
extreme interpretation following the ideas of Ahmed al-Hazimi,” said
Ludovico Carlino, senior analyst with IHS Conflict Monitor.
The theological dispute initiated by the proponents of al-Hazimi’s
doctrine has led to the most significant doctrinal challenge inside the
Islamic State since its emergence as a movement, and represents the
biggest threat to the Islamic State’s internal cohesion, the latest IHS
Conflict Monitor report said. “This raises the risk of defections from
the Islamic State to rival jihadist groups in Syria, or even potential
internal break-up,” Carlino said.
Re-capture of Mosul likely by mid-year
Iraqi government forces have made steady progress in the eastern
districts of Mosul, while Hashd al-Shaabi advances to the west of the
city are preventing resupply for the Islamic State. “We expect Iraqi
government forces to recapture Mosul before the second half of the
year,” Strack said. “After Mosul, the Iraqi government will probably
focus its attention on the remaining pocket of resistance around Hawija,
which the jihadists are using as a base for their campaign of sustained
terrorist attacks in Baghdad.”
Capturing Raqqa far more problematic
The eviction of the Islamic State from Raqqa in 2017 is much more
problematic than its loss of Mosul, given the complex political and
military considerations involved, the latest IHS Conflict Monitor report
said.
The Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) ‘Euphrates Wrath’ operation against
the Islamic State has achieved significant advances in north-western
Raqqa province along the eastern bank of the Euphrates River, with the
support of US coalition airstrikes and Special Forces advisers. However,
progress has stalled in the triangle of more densely populated
agricultural land, between the Euphrates and the Balikh River, which
runs north-south joining the Euphrates in Raqqa.
“Raqqa represents the core of the Islamic State and they are unlikely to
leave without a fight,” Strack said. “It would probably take a major
ground intervention by one of the main external players, the US, Turkey,
or Russian and Iranian-backed Syrian government forces, to expel the
Islamic State from Raqqa in 2017.”
Intelligence cut-off date: 9 January 2017.
About the
IHS Conflict Monitor
The IHS
Conflict Monitor is an open-source intelligence collection and
analysis service, which includes unrivalled data coverage of the
conflict in Iraq and Syria, weekly control maps, as well as in-depth
quantitative and qualitative analysis by IHS Jane’s security experts.
Visit our site to learn more about the service and a free trial: https://www.ihs.com/products/conflictmonitor.html
or get in touch here.
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Source: IHS Markit
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