The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday, Aug. 7, edition that the Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion was intended to reduce the difference in price between Canadian oil and U.S. crude. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that the price difference has actually increased. Analysts had predicted that the price difference for Western Canada Select compared with U.S. crude would gradually decrease to single digits due to the additional 590,000 barrels per day of export capacity provided by TMX. Instead, however, WCS for delivery in Hardisty, Alta., is trading about $15 a barrel below benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, versus $11.75 a barrel under the U.S. crude on May 1, the first day of commercial operations. WTI has declined in recent weeks to less than $74 a barrel. Oil companies in Canada have struggled for years with production outpacing the space available on export pipelines, causing crude to get bottlenecked in Alberta. TMX's start-up means Canada finally has spare pipeline capacity, but the expected boost to prices has not materialized.
RBC's Greg Pardy says, "The main fly in the ointment may be elevated inventory levels in select U.S. regions, but time will tell."
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