The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, March 13, edition that U.S. equities have lost over $4-trillion in value after President Donald Trump's administration indicated that a recession could result from its tariff policies. The Globe's guest columnist Kevin Yin writes that what was promised as an era of economic growth has yet to materialize, and traders are reacting negatively. Mr. Trump has consistently emphasized that tariffs are essential to his goals of reviving manufacturing jobs, replacing traditional tax revenues and reducing the trade deficit. He successfully implemented tariffs on China in his first term and referred to "tariff" as the most "beautiful word in the dictionary," promising 25-per-cent tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Clearly markets did not expect Mr. Trump to actually implement the tariffs, while they did expect tax cuts. Investors were swayed by arguments that tariffs were simply a tool for bargaining and that the negative growth effects of actually implementing them made them unlikely. Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillip noted in early February that tariffs were underpriced, a view echoed by JPMorgan. By late February, as prices began to drop, Goldman revised its outlook to reflect this.
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