The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday edition that Goldman Sachs economists estimate that the new trade tariffs announced by President Donald Trump could significantly impact Corporate America's profits. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that
Goldman Sachs said, "These announcements have come as a shock to many investors who expected tariffs would only be imposed if trade negotiations failed."
It estimates that every five-percentage-point increase in the tariff rate would lower the S&P 500's earnings per share by about 1 per cent to 2 per cent. As a result, if sustained, Goldman said the latest tariff announcements could bring about a reduction in its forecasts for the S&P 500's earnings by about 2 to 3 per cent, not taking into account any added impact from other trends such as monetary policy uncertainty. Goldman's FX analysts believe that tariffs could strengthen the dollar further, although that should have a limited impact on total S&P 500 earnings. Goldman noted that if investors see tariffs as a temporary step toward a negotiated settlement, the impact on the equities would be smaller than if the latest announcements are viewed as signs of increasing the odds of additional escalation.
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