The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday, Sept. 10, edition that Goldman Sachs says a victory by Donald Trump in the coming U.S. presidential election would be more damaging to the economy than a win by Kamala Harris. The Globe's regular guest columnist David Rosenberg writes that he has no idea what the Goldman model posits, but it likely underestimates the multiplier impact from corporate tax hikes. He says this swamps the impact of giveaway tax credits to low-income households (which will be used to meet their food, rent and utility bills but do little to spur the cyclical segments of the economy). Mr. Rosenberg says all Mr. Trump intends to do from an economic perspective is to extend the policies of his 2016-2020 tenure, which delivered 2.8-per-cent annualized real gross-domestic-product growth from the time he got elected to the time the pandemic unravelled the economy in early 2020. Love or hate him, Mr. Trump's policies fostered 4-per-cent annualized growth in volume capital spending compared with less than 3 per cent under the current administration. All of that goes to show that there is no antidote for growth in the productive capital stock other than good old-fashioned reductions in top marginal tax rates.
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