The Financial Post reports in its Saturday, Aug. 24, edition that Goldman Sachs has revised down India's growth forecast by 20 basis points for this year and the next, attributing it to a decline in government expenditure. A Bloomberg dispatch to the Post reports that the bank now predicts that the nation's economy will grow by 6.7 per cent in 2024 and 6.4 per cent in 2025. The downward revision for this year is due to a 35-per-cent year-on-year contraction in government expenditure during the April-June quarter, which coincided with the weeks-long general election, as stated by the bank's economists on Friday.
India's growth next year will be constrained by the government's pledge in the budget to reduce the fiscal deficit to below 4.5 per cent of gross domestic product. The expansion will also face challenges from slower real consumption growth, driven by a decline in household credit because of the Reserve Bank of India's stricter rules to regulate unsecured lending by banks, according to the economists.
Nonetheless, easier monetary policy could alleviate some of the constraints on real GDP growth next year, as Goldman Sachs anticipates the RBI to "commence its easing cycle in December, 2024."
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