The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday edition that the American dollar has weakened due to the U.S. interest rate outlook being re-evaluated. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that the greenback is at its lowest point of the year against major and emerging market currencies. The question now is whether this downward trend will continue.
When relative interest rates are considered, it seems unlikely. The substantial and rapid anticipated Fed easing priced into the U.S. futures curve appears excessive.
Traders are expecting over 200 basis points of Fed rate cuts by September, 2025. They also forecast the Fed funds rate to reach just above 3 per cent the following year, assuming the Fed will implement the most aggressive policy-easing campaign among the G7 countries.
There is also a one-in-three chance that this easing cycle could begin with a 50 bps cut next month -- a move that has historically only occurred in emergencies and crises.
Reuters notes that U.S. markets have recently experienced significant volatility. Additionally, significant downward revisions to employment growth indicate that the labour market may be struggling. This suggests that markets might be more fragile than previously believed.
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