The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition that the U.S. currency tends to rise steadily over time, but when it turns, it can plunge rapidly.
A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that it is equally applicable to U.S. interest rates. Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycles are often conducted gradually, at former Fed chair Alan Greenspan's famous "measured pace." However, not easing cycles.
History shows that rate cuts are often large, aggressive and reactive because policy-makers are forced onto the back foot and into frantically responding to damaging forces spiralling out of control, such as recession or severe financial market dislocation. Or both. Put another way, the economy practically never enjoys the fabled "soft landing." Instead, it is often facing an emergency landing. That is because lagging behind is more a feature of Fed policy than a bug. Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee said on Friday it was the central bank's job to act in a "steady" way. A Fed paper in May concluded that "successful policy management appears more likely when policy-makers act early, more parsimoniously and preemptively."
Despite their best intentions, however, policy-makers' reaction function is rarely steady.
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