The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday, Aug. 7, edition that the equity market sell-off is raising concerns about a potential recession in the United States, but these worries may be exaggerated. The Globe's Matt Lundy and Mark Rendell write that major stock indexes rebounded on Tuesday, recovering some of the steep losses from recent sessions. Investors are attempting to understand the volatility, with one prevailing theory suggesting that the U.S. economy is weakening due to higher interest rates. It is believed that the Federal Reserve has maintained rates at restrictive levels for too long, posing a threat to the possibility of a soft landing. The jobless rate has risen enough that the "Sahm rule," created by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, is signalling the U.S. has entered a recession. Elsewhere, however, the data point to robust growth. The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.8 per cent in the second quarter. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is projecting a similar expansion in the current quarter -- nowhere close to a recession.
BMO economist Sal Guatieri said: "I would say the U.S. economy is slowing, but it's not contracting. We're not seeing clear signs that the economy is rolling over."
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