The Financial Post reports in its Wednesday, Nov. 9, edition that as the Bank of Canada considers raising interest rates at a slower pace, it is focusing on inflation measures that are more timely than typically observed, which could help it avoid tightening beyond the level needed to subdue price pressures.
The Post's Fergal Smith writes that inflation tends to be reported on a year-over-year basis. However, as price pressures show signs of peaking, the BOC's move to consider the most recent data could help it fine-tune an end point for the rise in its policy rate that does the least possible damage.
Some forecasters expect Canada's economy to dip into recession next year. When consumer prices are compared with levels that prevailed three months ago, key gauges of core inflation that the BOC tracks, look more encouraging than they do when presented on a year-over-year basis.
The charts show three-month CPI-median and CPItrim measures cooling to a pace of roughly 4 per cent in September compared to the level of about 5 per cent that has persisted for 12-month rates in recent months. The headline rate, which includes more volatile items such as energy, has already come off its peak.
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