The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that the loonie has weakened by more than 7 per cent against the U.S. dollar since the start of 2022. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that Canada's dollar will gain less than previously thought over the coming year as the domestic economy has lost some sensitivity to oil prices and as the Bank of Canada potentially lags the Federal Reserve in hiking rates, a Reuters poll showed. According to the median forecast of nearly 30 currency analysts in the Oct. 28 to Nov. 1 poll showed the Canadian dollar will weaken over 0.5 per cent to 1.37 per U.S. dollar in three months time, compared with the October forecast of 1.34. It was then expected to rally to 1.31 in a year, versus expectations of 1.30.
CIBC analyst Bipan Rai says, "We think that when it comes to central bank action that the Bank of Canada is going to end up with a lower terminal rate." He says, "That implied spread between terminal rates in Canada and the United States will probably have to widen out further and that could take the U.S. dollar higher across the board including against the Canadian dollar." Investors are betting on a terminal rate from the BOC in the coming months of 4.25 per cent.
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