The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday edition that financial crises, such as the mortgage-induced one in 2008, are unpredictable.
The Globe's guest columnist Todd Hirsch says that if we were able to predict them, they would not happen. He says looking back on it, all of the ingredients of a crisis were present. In the wake of every financial crisis, the refrain rings out: We should have seen this coming! Mr. Hirsch says the Bank of Canada did the right thing Wednesday boosting its benchmark rate to 3.75 per cent. It is unpleasant, but needs doing.
Forceful efforts to douse an overheated economy are already having an effect. Inflation will be brought to its knees eventually.
However, are the ingredients of the next global financial crisis right before our eyes? Will we once again be surprised that we did not see it coming? When all central banks are taking such aggressive actions simultaneously, what triggers might we be pulling? The thought of cumulative and concurrent rate hikes having an impact larger than envisioned by central bankers should have our attention. What is expected to be a mild and short recession in Canada may be pre-empted by a larger, more global and more damaging financial crisis.
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