The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday, Sept. 28, edition that investors are betting the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates to a lower end point than the Federal Reserve, an outcome that could spell more trouble for the Canadian dollar.
A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that the BOC has set the pace for tightening this year among central banks overseeing the 10 most traded currencies, lifting its key interest rate by 300 basis points to a 14-year high of 3.25 per cent to tackle soaring inflation.
However, in the face of the Fed's growing hawkishness and signs that higher borrowing costs may already be slowing the Canadian economy, money markets now are betting the Fed will end its tightening cycle with a higher policy rate than the BOC. The Fed last week raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to a range of 3 per cent to 3.25 per cent and signalled more large increases to come. Investors expect the Fed's policy rate to reach a terminal rate of about 4.6 per cent by the end of the first half of 2023, compared with about 4.10 per cent for the BOC's policy rate. Just a few weeks ago, the end point for both central banks was seen at about 3.75 per cent.
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