The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, Sept. 12, edition that a recent flurry of decent economic data has dimmed expectations for a big rate cut at the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on Sept. 17 and 18. The Globe's Ian McGugan writes that financial markets had once hoped for a cut of half a percentage point. Now, a quarter-percentage-cut seems far more likely. In addition, the futures market is now predicting less than a 50-per-cent chance of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada before mid-2020. Some commentators are sounding more optimistic. Capital Economics economist Neil Shearing argues that recessions usually have one of six causes: central banks raising interest rates, governments cutting spending, the bursting of a debt bubble, the bursting of a housing bubble, a balance-of-payments crisis or a banking crisis. None of those factors are ringing alarm bells right now, he says. Central banks are cutting rates, governments appear prepared to spend more, and it is hard to spot an obvious bubble that could crash the global economy. In the United States, the most likely scenario is a slowdown, not a recession, according to Center for Economic and Policy Research economist Dean Baker.