The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, April 4, edition that the United States bond market is no longer signalling economic trouble ahead, bolstering the view that last month's yield curve inversion was likely a brief blip rather than an omen.
The Globe's David Berman writes that BMO economist Michael Gregory says: "As a signal, just the fact that it goes there is not sufficient. It has to persist there for some time." Mr. Gregory's comments follow a similarly upbeat view on Monday from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, who said that historically low interest rates suggest that yield curve inversions -- when short-term bonds yield more than long-term bonds -- will occur far more frequently than they used to. Mr. Poloz said,
"We're always going to be closer to a flat and low yield curve, and therefore statistically it's more possible to see inversions that are just innocent ones." Mr. Berman says the stock market appears to agree. He notes that on Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Canada's S&P/TSX Composite Index both notched fresh highs for the year.
A yield curve inversion is an unusual occurrence that has preceded the past seven recessions, including the 2008 financial crisis.
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