The Toronto Star reports in its Friday, May 10, edition that Toronto-Dominion Bank is predicting the loonie will fall as low as 90 U.S. cents by the end of 2013 or early the following year. A Canadian Press dispatch to the Star reports the Canadian dollar has been hovering near parity with the United States.
The loonie has actually strengthened of late since falling as low as 96.68 U.S. cents in March, but economists Francis Fong and Leslie Preston, who wrote the report, say that will not last.
Mr. Fong says: "OK, fine it has strengthened, but that doesn't change the fundamental story. ... If you look at the fundamental factors driving the Canadian dollar, we think the outlook is all down."
The analysts note Canada is now expected to underperform the United States in economic growth this year and commodity prices, which have been a major factor behind the loonie's flight, are expected to remain weak given slower-than-anticipated growth in China. Finally, the U.S. dollar is doing better and the Bank of Canada has signalled interest rates will remain low for longer.
A weaker currency can be a net benefit for the economy especially given that about 75 per cent of Canadian exports are sold in the U.S. market.
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