The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday edition that Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce analyst Ian Pollick sees lower rates and borrowing costs in 2019. The Globe's Scott Barlow writes that Mr. Pollick says the price of one-year to three-year government bonds "is going to be one of the best macro trades around, but that is a 2019 story." Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields, so if owning shorter-term bonds is going to be a great trade in 2019, bond prices are going up and yields lower. Mr. Pollick's forecast is directly opposed to the consensus view that domestic interest rates are headed higher, thanks to the Bank of Canada's stated monetary tightening intentions. Mr. Pollick says the BOC is closer to the end of its tightening cycle than the market believes. Options markets expect a BOC policy rate of 2.5 per cent by the end of 2019. This would require, however, that Canada's current strong economic momentum continues at the same pace. Otherwise, Governor Stephen Poloz's rate hikes could send the economy into recession. Mr. Pollick says the record levels of consumer debt means that increases in borrowing costs will hit the economy harder, and more quickly than in previous periods.