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or Name
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Agrium Inc
Symbol AGU
Shares Issued 143,029,081
Close 2015-05-05 C$ 125.05
Market Cap C$ 17,885,786,579
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Agrium earns $14-million (U.S.) in Q1, boosts dividend

2015-05-05 19:53 ET - News Release

Mr. Chuck Magro reports

AGRIUM'S FIRST QUARTER AFFECTED BY DELAYED START TO U.S. SPRING SEASON; ANNOUNCES DIVIDEND INCREASE OF 12 PERCENT

Agrium Inc. has released its 2015 first quarter earnings results, with net earnings of $14-million (eight cents in diluted earnings per share) this quarter, compared with $3-million (two cents in diluted earnings per share) in the first quarter of 2014. (All amounts are stated in U.S. dollars.) The higher earnings were supported by strong margins and operating rates for nitrogen products in wholesale, while some first quarter retail earnings were pushed into the second quarter as a result of the delayed start to the spring season in the United States this year.

Highlights:

  • First quarter adjusted net earnings of $19-million or 12 cents per share(1);
  • Strong nitrogen performance contributed to wholesale gross profit of $234-million, compared with $171-million in the first quarter of 2014;
  • Retail gross profit of $371-million, compared with $387-million in the first quarter of 2014, affected by slow start to U.S. spring season -- shifts earnings into the second quarter;
  • Announced a 12-per-cent increase to dividend, now $3.50 per share on an annualized basis;
  • Repurchased $75-million or approximately 712,000 shares since the beginning of April;
  • First-half guidance range of $4.75 to $5.25 in diluted earnings per share, and updated 2015 annual guidance range narrowed to $7 to $8.25 in diluted earnings per share.

Agrium's board of directors has approved an increase to Agrium's dividend by 12 per cent, or 38 cents per common share, to a total dividend of $3.50 per common share on an annualized basis. Based on the closing price of Agrium's shares on the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday, May 5, 2015, this represents a dividend yield of 3.4 per cent. The increased dividend is expected to be paid in quarterly instalments of 87.5 cents, and the next 87.5-cent dividend(2) has been declared by the board of directors and will be paid on July 16, 2015, to shareholders of record on June 30, 2015.

"Agrium's first quarter results were impacted by a late start to the spring season in the U.S. this year. All indications are that Agrium will deliver strong second quarter results on solid crop input demand now that the spring application season is fully under way and given we have made excellent progress ramping up production from our expanded potash facility over the past month. We continue to position our operations and asset mix to support higher cash flow and capital returns over time irrespective of any short-term headwinds. The increase in the dividend and recent share buyback activity demonstrates our commitment to this strategy and to our shareholders," commented Chuck Magro, Agrium's president and chief executive officer.

Notes:

  1. A first quarter effective tax rate of 26 per cent was used for adjusted net earnings and per-share calculations. These are non-IFRS (international financial reporting standards) measures that represent net earnings adjusted for certain income (expenses) that are considered to be non-operational in nature. Agrium believes that these measures provide meaningful comparisons with the earnings of other companies by eliminating share-based payments expense (recovery), gains (losses) on foreign exchange and non-qualifying derivative hedges. These should not be considered as a substitute for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with IFRS, and may not be directly comparable with similar measures presented by other companies.
  2. All dividends paid by Agrium are, pursuant to Subsection 89(14) of the Income Tax Act, designated as eligible dividends. An eligible dividend paid to a Canadian resident is entitled to an enhanced gross-up and dividend tax credit.

Updated 2015 annual guidance

Based on its market outlook, Agrium expects to achieve annual diluted earnings per share of $7 to $8.25 in 2015, compared with its previous estimate of $7 to $8.50 per share. The company has narrowed the guidance range primarily based on the effect of higher Chinese urea exports on global urea prices, margin pressure on seed sales and the expected effected on crop input expenditures associated with a reduction in U.S. corn acres this year. Agrium is issuing earnings guidance of $4.75 to $5.25 in diluted earnings per share for the first half of 2015, indicative of a strong spring season despite earlier weather-related delays.

Agrium has reduced its estimate of nitrogen production tonnes to reflect its plan to dispose of its West Sacramento upgrade facility, announced subsequent to March 31, 2015. Its estimate is now 3.5 million to 3.7 million tonnes for the year, as all other facilities are in line with its previously disclosed production range.

Agrium's retail EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) for 2015 is now expected to be between $1.15-billion and $1.22-billion. The slight narrowing of the range from its previous estimate is due to some seed margin pressure this year, a reduction in U.S. corn acres and a slightly lower fertilizer pricing environment in 2015.

Agrium has updated its finance cost range for 2015 to $230-million to $250-million to reflect the incremental interest expense related to its $1-billion bond issuance in February, 2015. Its estimates of the Canada/U.S. foreign exchange rate and the New York Mercantile Exchange for 2015 have been narrowed from its original estimates based on current market conditions.

This guidance and updated additional measures and related assumptions are summarized in the accompanying table. The guidance excludes the effect of share-based payment expense (recovery), gains (losses) on foreign exchange and non-qualifying derivative hedges. Volumetric and earnings estimates assume normal seasonal growing and harvest patterns in the geographies where Agrium operates.

                 2015 ANNUAL GUIDANCE RANGE AND ASSUMPTIONS
                                                               Annual
                                                          Low           High

EPS                                                     $7.00          $8.25
Guidance assumptions
Wholesale
Production tonnes
Nitrogen (millions)(1)                                    3.5            3.7
Potash (millions)                                         1.9            2.2
Retail
EBITDA (billions)                                       $1.15          $1.22
Crop nutrient sales tonnes (millions)                     9.7           10.2
Other
Finance costs (millions)                                 $250           $230
Tax rate                                                   28%            27%
Sustaining capital expenditures (millions)               $500           $550
Total capital expenditures (billions)                    $1.2           $1.3
Canada/U.S. foreign exchange rate                        1.20           1.30
NYMEX gas price ($/mmBtu)                               $3.50          $2.50

(1) Nitrogen production tonnes reduced to reflect disposal of West  
    Sacramento upgrade facility.

Market outlook

Record global crop production in 2014 and a sizable Southern Hemisphere crop this year has weighed on international crop prices. The start of the spring application season in North America was delayed due to wet weather across the southern and eastern United States, but seeding rates started to catch up in late April and as of early May were above the historical average. Drier conditions in the Northern Plains and Western Canada are expected to support strong seeded acreage and related crop input demand in these regions this year compared with recent history. This is particularly important for Agrium's wholesale nitrogen sales and Canadian retail operations. California is in a drought situation, which is expected to reduce acreage of some row crops this year, but high fruit and vegetable prices have supported crop input demand. U.S. corn acreage expectations have decreased slightly over the past month as a result of the delayed spring season in the southern and eastern United States. If U.S. crop yields come in at or below trend levels this year, Agrium expects crop prices to firm up in the second half of 2015.

The late start to the season in the southern and eastern United States, combined with lower crop prices, resulted in delays in decisions regarding seeding and crop protection product use, pushing sales into the second quarter. Some growers have been more discerning regarding genetic traits and in some cases have selected older, lower-priced varieties. The later planting season is expected to support demand for retail services in the second quarter as growers focus on getting the crop inputs in place in a compressed season.

Global crop nutrient demand was relatively strong in late 2014 and early 2015, as buyers purchased product ahead of the Northern Hemisphere spring season. This led to comfortable inventory levels heading into the spring season and has contributed to recent weakness in global nutrient pricing. The significant decline in the value of most non-U.S. currencies relative to the U.S. dollar has lowered the cost of production for many non-U.S. producers and raised the cost of crop inputs in some local currencies. However, over all, the lower currencies have been a net benefit for growers in these regions due to higher crop prices in local currencies.

China exported just over four million tonnes of urea in the first quarter of 2015, more than double the volume exported in the same period of 2014. Exports were supported by strong import demand from the United States and India. Ukrainian urea production and exports increased over the past few months, further adding prilled urea supplies to global trade. In recent weeks, Chinese nitrogen producers have resisted further price declines, indicating that urea prices are near the cost-based floor level and that the pace of Chinese exports is expected to slow relative to 2014 levels in the coming months.

The delay in concluding Chinese and Indian potash supply agreements resulted in other potash buyers postponing purchases, which pressured global potash prices in the first quarter of 2015. The North American potash market was also affected by the delayed spring and higher offshore potash imports this year. Global phosphate demand has slowed in recent weeks, which has put some pressure on international and domestic pricing. Brazilian phosphate demand has begun relatively slow in 2015, but domestic deliveries improved in March and the import pace is expected to increase in the coming months. Analysts expect that Indian potash and phosphate demand will increase again in 2015.

Website simulcast

A website simulcast of the 2015 first quarter conference call will be available in a listen-only mode beginning on Wednesday, May 6, 2015, at 7:30 a.m. MT (9:30 a.m. ET). Please visit the company's website.

                   CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
          (in millions of U.S. dollars, except per-share amounts)

                                                 Three months ended March 31,
                                                         2015           2014

Sales                                               $   2,872      $   3,079
Cost of product sold                                    2,288          2,523
Gross profit                                              584            556
Expenses
Selling                                                   430            444
General and administrative                                 67             69
Share-based payments                                       45             31
Earnings from associates and joint ventures                 -             (1)
Other income                                              (33)           (40)
Earnings before finance costs and income taxes             75             53
Finance costs related to long-term debt                    37             19
Other finance costs                                        19             17
Earnings before income taxes                               19             17
Income taxes                                                5              5
Net earnings from continuing operations                    14             12
Net (loss) from discontinued operations                     -             (9)
Net earnings                                               14              3
Attributable to
Equity holders of Agrium                                   12              2
Non-controlling interest                                    2              1
Net earnings                                               14              3
Earnings per share attributable to equity
holders of Agrium 
Basic and diluted earnings per share from
continuing operations                                    0.08           0.08
Basic and diluted (loss) per share from
discontinued operations                                     -          (0.06)
Basic and diluted earnings per share                     0.08           0.02

We seek Safe Harbor.

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