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by Stockwatch Business Reporter

West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery, the benchmark in North America, lost 44 cents to $45.15 on the New York Merc, while Brent for March, the international benchmark, lost 63 cents to $48.16 (all figures in this para U.S.). Western Canadian Select, Canada's heavy oil benchmark, traded at a discount of $13.65 to WTI ($31.50), unchanged. Natural gas for February, the international benchmark, lost 10.5 cents to $2.88. The TSX energy index added a fraction to close at 217.10.

Long Run Exploration Ltd. (LRE) began the week with a sputter, crossing below $1 for the first time ever before settling at $1.04, down 22 cents, on 8.72 million shares. The pessimism may have been driven by analysts. National Bank Financial downgraded the stock to "sector perform" from "outperform" and lowered its price target to $1.25 from $3. Dundee was even more pessimistic, urging investors to "sell" (a downgrade from the previous rating of "neutral"), with a price target of 50 cents. They seem to have low expectations for the Alberta-focused company's promised update this week. Long Run previously said it would provide information about its proposed dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP) at the end of January. Although the update might contain that information and nothing more, it might also include changes to the company's 2015 guidance. This was released in mid-December and included a budget of $165-million, based on a full-year average of $70 (U.S.) WTI. The forecast for the first quarter is lower -- just $60 (U.S.) WTI -- but that is still well above the current price. Long Run may struggle to finance its planned first quarter program of $60-million to $70-million while coping with its debt (which was around $700-million at the end of September) and paying its dividend (which was halved to 1.75 cents a month in December, for a still-generous yield of 20.2 per cent). The company plans to use any cash savings from the DRIP, as well as any proceeds from asset sales, for debt repayment. It says it wants to sell 1,000 to 4,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day this year. To put that in perspective, its 2015 guidance (excluding asset sales) is 35,000 to 36,000 barrels a day, compared with the 2014 target of 31,400 barrels a day.

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