The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday, April 2, edition that TD Securities analyst Aaron Bilkoski believes the business of Pengrowth Energy ($1.60) is "fundamentally" overvalued given his commodity price outlook. The Globe's David Leeder writes in the Eye On Equities column that Mr. Bilkoski downgraded his rating for the stock to "reduce" from "hold." The TD analyst continues to target the shares at 90 cents. Analysts on average target the shares at $1.30. Mr. Bilkoski says: "Since publishing our last note (Feb. 26), Pengrowth shares have rallied by [approximately] 70 per cent. This strong share price performance can, in part, be explained by the 17-per-cent improvement in the price of WTI and the disclosure that a prominent Canadian investor (Seymour Schulich) has recently accumulated nearly a 15-per-cent stake in the company. However, by year-end 2017, we forecast that production will decline 25 per cent versus Q4/15. Moreover, as hedges roll off, we forecast that cash flow will decline 50 per cent in 2017 (versus 2016 estimate) in spite of our forecast of improving crude oil prices." Mr. Bilkoski says "strong" sales metrics could provide a positive catalyst for the stock.