The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday edition that Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge sees the loonie falling to 70 U.S. cents. The Globe's Scott Barlow writes that Mr. Roberge's methodology is based on economic surprise indexes, which measure economic data reports relative to consensus expectations. The surprise indexes are not the only reason Mr. Roberge expects weakness for the loonie. He writes, "While Ottawa and the Liberals are back running budget deficits, Canada's trade balance remains deep in the red despite a marked depreciation of the [Canadian dollar]." This trade deficit means more money flowing out of the country, selling Canadian dollars to buy foreign currencies in the process, and a dampening effect on the currency. The loonie is fairly valued right now. However, the weakness Mr. Roberge sees in the economic surprise indexes now, if it continues, will have a downward effect on the two-year Canadian bond yield. This will push the loonie lower. The use of surprise indexes allows investors to connect a real-time view of economic growth to interest rate and currency markets. It appears to offer an effective tool to gauge the future of the domestic currency.