The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that analysts from Bank of Montreal, TD and Scotiabank are forecasting that the loonie will get a big boost from rising oil prices. The Globe's Scott Barlow writes that there is little sign of such a pop. Bond yields continue to drive the bus where the value of the Canadian dollar is concerned.
TD strategist Mark McCormick predicted a return to the close correlation between the loonie and West Texas Intermediate prices that would push the Canadian dollar to 82 U.S. cents.
The loonie's value has been more or less ignoring changes in the oil price recently, which is contrary to the historical trend. Crude prices may reassert their influence in 2018, but it has not yet begun.
The Canadian dollar remains pinned to relative bond yields -- the difference between government of Canada two-year bond yields and two-year U.S. Treasury bond yields.
The close relationship mirrors the global search for yield. To maximize income, global bond investors move assets between Canadian and U.S. fixed-income markets as yields in one country climb. The loonie and oil prices have moved generally in the same direction the past five years, but less so over the past 14 months.
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