The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, Sept. 7, edition that before Wednesday's Bank of Canada interest rate hike,
financial markets had priced in only a 50-50 chance of
such a move. The Globe's guest columnists Steve Ambler and Jeremy Kronick write that this means that half the market believed the
bank would hold rates steady, creating uncertainty, which has big economic costs for consumers and
businesses alike. The columnists say the BOC must improve
its messaging.
At a minimum, it can clarify two
confusing issues that are at play.
First, despite robust and broad economic growth, inflation
has remained stubbornly below the bank's 2-per-cent target.
The breaking of the link between economic growth and inflation
has confounded economists since 2008. A
rate hike in such an environment surprises market participants
who believe an inflation-targeting central bank should
keep rates steady. The rationale for increasing rates is missing
since inflation remains muted and it is not clear that strong economic
growth will translate into inflationary pressure. The BOC
should continue to reinforce the idea that it looks to return
inflation to target, not in this quarter, but in six to eight quarters.
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