The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday edition that steadily rising dividends have long been a powerful incentive for investors to hold shares of Canada's big banks. The Globe's David Berman writes that the dividend incentive could start to fade. The Big Six banks will start reporting their fiscal third quarter results on Tuesday, along with announcements of dividend payouts. At least two analysts believe that banks will become a bit stingy with returning capital to shareholders. Barclays analyst John Aiken says, "Although the Canadian banks continue to sport solid capital levels, with moderating earnings growth tempering the pace of organic capital generation, we believe that dividend growth will remain constrained." He is not forecasting any dividend increases from the big banks. Nor is National Bank Financial analyst Peter Routledge. He says, "Whereas previously we observed a pattern of semi-annual dividend increases among several of the Big Six banks, we now anticipate that slowing earnings growth as well as the impetus to build up regulatory capital will slow both share repurchase and dividend activity." Mr. Berman says the banks are facing challenges that make dividend hikes less certain.